Selasa, 16 Maret 2010

Market overview

The bristling hostility between two Canada-based gold diggers, Barrick and Goldcorp, over El Morro, a deposit in Chile, raises a number of issues of more than passing interest. The unusual tactics applied by Goldcorp to ostensibly gain control of El Morro are one thing; another highlight is the characterisation of the asset, for both groups, which increasingly rely for a living on non-gold metal sales.

In the hands of London-listed Xstrata, El Morro was classified as a copper-gold deposit; in the disputed hands of the two gold groups, it was magically converted overnight into a gold-first deposit. On 12 October 2009, Barrick announced that it agreed with Xstrata to acquire Xstrata's 70% interest in the El Morro project for USD 465m in cash. The asset is close to Barrick's Pascua Lama, now in build, and 75%-held Cerro Casale, which is ready for build.

From stage left, on 7 January 2010, Canada-listed New Gold, holding 30% of El Morro, said that is had exercised a right of first refusal on El Morro, a right triggered by Barrick's original offer. On 7 January 2010, also, Goldcorp magically agreed to loan USD 463m to New Gold to fund the acquisition of Xstrata's 70% interest. Goldcorp also loaned USD 50m "to a New Gold subsidiary which was paid to a different New Gold subsidiary in consideration of the internal assignment of the acquisition agreement with Xstrata".

That apparently left Goldcorp with 70% of El Morro, and New Gold with the balance. Not so, says Barrick, which "disputes that Xstrata or New Gold could properly sell the interest to Goldcorp and has filed an action in Ontario involving New Gold, Goldcorp and Xstrata in order to protect its rights under an October 2009 sale agreement with Xstrata". Barrick intends to "vigorously pursue" its claims and expects that the Ontario courts "will ultimately respect Barrick's rights notwithstanding the disputed Xstrata-Goldcorp transaction".

While it can be argued that, at least in the interests of transparency, Goldcorp could have chosen to kick off a "hostile counterbid" for El Morro, Xstrata equally could have put the stake up for open tender after clarifying rights with New Gold, to promote a certain outcome. Xstrata probably would have seen the price bid higher, an outcome that would have done its own shareholders no harm.

The matter is now in the courts; whatever the outcome, the dual-metal status of El Morro would accelerate the growing multi-metal status of Barrick and Goldcorp, also seen at certain other gold majors, such as Newmont. For gold companies, this is less like kissing your sister, and more like having an ugly sister and having no choice but to do the honours.

Gold diggers have developed a habit of using "other metal" sales, such as for copper, as nothing more than convenient weapons to reduce reported per-ounce costs of producing gold. But why would two gold majors battle over what ranks primarily as a copper deposit?

BARRICK'S COPPER MOVES

Barrick anticipates own copper production for 2010 of 340-365m pounds, which would produce revenue of more than USD 1bn at prevailing copper prices. Forward production is likely to expand with the USD 3bn build of Pascua Lama, on the Chile-Argentina border. Given a mine life of 25 years, expected average annual production is about 750,000-800,000 ounces of gold and 35m ounces of silver in the first full five years; copper production would be relatively modest, at about 30m pounds a year.

At Cerro Casale, in Chile, where Kinross owns 25%, feasibility study optimization work is complete. Pre-production capital expenditure is huge, at around USD 4.2bn (100% basis). Barrick's 75% share of average annual production is anticipated to be about 750,000-825,000 ounces of gold and 170-190m pounds of copper in the first full five years.

According to El Morro itself, production at full capacity, on a 100% basis, is likely to be in the order of about 330m pounds of copper a year, plus some 300,000 ounces of gold. Capital expenditure to build the mine is put at about USD 2.5bn. Based on prevailing metal prices, El Morro would rank firmly as a copper-gold mine.

If Barrick succeeds in obtaining 70% of El Morro, and completes build of Pascua Lama, Cerro Casale, and El Morro, its annualised copper production would approach 800m pounds. Barrick's share of capital expenditure for the three mines would be about USD 8bn.

Barrick






Five prior

Total

USD m

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

years


Operating cash flow

2,899

2,254

1,732

2,122

726

3,147

12,880

Capital expenditure

-2,351

-1,749

-1,046

-1,087

-1,104

-2,558

-9,895

Other

-64

-2,171

-1,122

-506

-76

-5

-3,944

Net

484

-1,666

-436

529

-454

584

-959









Free cash flow








Operating cash flow

2,899

2,254

1,732

2,122

726

3,147

12,880

Capital expenditure

-2,351

-1,749

-1,046

-1,087

-1,104

-2,558

-9,895

Free cash flow

548

505

686

1,035

-378

589

2,985

















Debt raised

-1,748

-1,114

720

-608

-120

-781

-3,651









Equity raised

3,950

74

142

74

92

43

4,375









Cash on hand

2,564

1,437

2,207

3,043

1,037

NA

2,564

Debt

-6,335

-4,556

-3,148

-4,107

-1,801

NA

-6,335

Net debt

-3,771

-3,119

-941

-1,064

-764

NA

-3,771









Dividends

-369

-349

-261

-191

-118

-542

-1,830



GOLDCORP: HUNGRY TO SUPPORT EXTREME MARKET VALUATION

Goldcorp's big current build, costing billions of dollars, is at Peñasquito in Mexico; commercial production is anticipated around the third quarter of this year. At full production, and on life-of-mine data, the two polymetallic pits at Peñasquito will produce, as Goldcorp puts it, "both lead and zinc concentrates, with most of the gold and silver production coming from the lead concentrates.

Output is anticipated at annualised 400m pounds of zinc; lead numbers are hazy, but lead concentrates are expected to contain about 500,000 ounces of gold annually, and 31m ounces of silver.

Based on prevailing metal prices, zinc revenues would compute at about USD 400m, gold at USD 550m and silver at just less than gold. During 2009, other metal sales for Goldcorp accounted for USD 454m of total USD 2.7bn revenues, or about 17% of the total. Most of that came by way of Goldcorp's 37.5% stake in copper-gold miner Alumbrera, 50% owned by and operated by Xstrata. The remaining stake in Alumbrera is held by Yamana, which relies heavily on Alumbrera to put a shine on its active group activities, which are focused on gold.

Goldcorp has a lot to prove. It market value, at USD 29.4bn, is higher than Newmont's USD 24.7bn, and second, among classified gold miners, only to Barrick's USD 39.5bn. Goldcorp's 2009 revenues of USD 2.7bn, compared to Newmont's USD 7.7bn, or Barrick's USD 8.1bn, leave lots to prove on the valuation front.

Over the past 10 years, Goldcorp has produced precious little in the way of free cash flow, financing the payment of USD 739m in cash dividends by raising equity from investors in a total amount of USD 968m, and divesting various assets, including its stake in Silver Wheaton, which in 2008 raised cash of USD 1.5bn for Goldcorp, and in 2006, USD 189m. On 24 July 2007, Goldcorp agreed to sell Silver Wheaton 25% of Peñasquito's life of mine silver production, for upfront cash of USD 485m.

Goldcorp






Five prior


USD m

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

years

Total

Operating cash flow

1,270.2

866.0

651.0

763.7

465.8

355.5

4,372.2

Capital expenditure

-1,356.4

-1,372.0

-871.0

-472.2

-277.5

-216.0

-4,565.1

Net investments

-102.3

930.3

13.4

-1,802.4

56.7

3.8

-900.5

Net

-188.5

424.3

-206.6

-1,510.9

244.9

143.3

-1,093.5









Free cash flow








Operating cash flow

1,270.2

866.0

651.0

763.7

465.8

355.5

4,372.2

Capital expenditure

-1,356.4

-1,372.0

-871.0

-472.2

-277.5

-216.0

-4,565.1

Free cash flow

-86.2

-506.0

-220.0

291.5

188.3

139.5

-193.0









Debt repaid/(raised*)

-872.0

639.0

-140.0

-845.0


4.8

-1,213.2









Equity raised

79.1

104.0

70.0

527.5

44.0

143.7

968.3









Cash on hand

874.6

262.0

511.0

526.3

562.2

NA

874.6

Debt*

-735.7

-5.3

-1,065.0

-925.0


NA

-735.7

Net cash/(debt)

138.9

256.7

-554.0

-398.7

562.2

NA

138.9









Dividends

-131.7

-129.0

-127.0

-79.1

-155.0

-117.5

-739.3

* Includes convertibles



OLD PALS NOW FOES?

Goldcorp and Barrick are hardly strangers; on 15 March 2006, Barrick acquired 100% of Placer Dome for some USD 10bn in shares and cash. Goldcorp had previously agreed to acquire for USD 1.6bn certain Placer Dome assets from Barrick, including the Campbell (100%), Porcupine (51%) and Musselwhite (68%) gold mines in Canada, the La Coipa (50%) silver-gold mine in Chile, and 40% of Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, plus Placer Dome's interests in its Canadian exploration properties, including the Mount Milligan copper/gold deposit in British Columbia.

Pueblo Viejo, where Barrick is 60% owner, and operator, is busy with a USD 2.7bn build. The mine is scheduled for initial production in the fourth quarter of 2011. On a balance of probabilities, it could make sense to argue that Goldcorp is hungrier than Barrick for El Morro. As has been shown over the past few years, copper can do absolute wonders for a gold miner's cash flow quantum, and quality.

One possible challenge for Goldcorp is that its status as a gold major could be "diluted" by increasing revenues from base metals. That is accelerating sharply as Peñasquito ramps up to full production, and would be sharply underlined if El Morro is retained and built.

Tier I gold (and some copper) diggers


Stock

From

From

Value


price

high*

low*

USD bn

Yamana

USD 10.18

-29.2%

38.3%

7.466

Goldcorp

USD 40.03

-13.4%

49.9%

29.364

Polyus

USD 48.75

-17.9%

47.7%

9.293

Harmony

ZAR 72.00

-38.7%

6.3%

4.157

Lihir

AUD 3.06

-18.8%

27.0%

6.626

AngloGold Ashanti

USD 38.28

-19.4%

30.4%

13.868

Zijin

CNY 8.18

-33.4%

117.6%

12.626

Barrick

USD 40.09

-16.5%

48.0%

39.462

Newcrest

AUD 33.52

-15.7%

21.3%

14.813

Gold Fields

ZAR 90.13

-27.9%

8.5%

8.613

Kinross

USD 18.15

-24.1%

33.3%

12.633

Newmont

USD 51.20

-9.3%

44.4%

24.731

Buenaventura

USD 32.91

-22.9%

86.6%

9.047

Freeport-McMoRan

USD 82.18

-9.2%

139.2%

35.384

[[SPDR Gold Shares ETF]]

USD 110.09

-7.9%

29.6%

40.315

Tier I averages/total


-21.2%

49.9%

228.083

Weighted averages


-18.1%

52.1%


* 12-month



source:mineweb


Full text..

Gold progress

Gold's rally to record highs in euro and sterling terms and the resilience of spot prices in the face of a rising dollar is sign-posting the metal's broadening insurance appeal, as sovereign debt fears shift to the fore.

Worries over Greece's fiscal outlook created a perfect storm for euro-priced gold this month, as some investors selling the single currency chose bullion as an alternative.

News that the next UK general election could result in a hung parliament, making it harder for an incoming government to tackle Britain's debt, sparked a similar rally in sterling gold, taking it to a record 759.86 pounds an ounce.

Investors' growing sensitivity towards sovereign risk is starting to suggest dollar-denominated gold can maintain strength even as the dollar rises -- usually a prime factor pushing the precious metal down.

"Gold is holding up very well given the foreign exchange market movements, and you have to ask why that is," said GFMS Chairman Philip Klapwijk. "Sovereign debt is very high up the agenda at the moment."

Spot gold held above $1,115 an ounce on Wednesday, off the record high of $1,226.10 it hit in December but still above the $1,096.25 at which it started the year.

The dollar has gained nearly 4 percent versus the euro in that time, largely on fears over fiscal issues in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

GLOBAL RISK

But sovereign debt issues don't stop there. In January the World Economic Forum said the risk that deteriorating government finances could push economies into full debt crises was the main threat facing the world in 2010.

The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach $1.56 trillion this year, Japanese debt is nearing 200 percent of GDP, while Fitch Ratings said earlier this week that Britain's sovereign credit profile has deteriorated.

"Until we start to see governments bringing down debt, the (sovereign) risk will stay with us," said Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen.

A Reuters monthly poll of 65 forex strategists showed the Greek debt crisis could force euro volatility against the dollar higher still in March.

Usually the euro's decline versus the dollar would drag gold lower, but that relationship has weakened.

Using 1 as a perfect correlation and -1 as an inverse correlation, the traditionally strong link between gold and the euro-dollar exchange rate fell from 0.9 in early February to as low as -0.2 a month later, according to Reuters data.

UGLY CONTEST

With the world's leading currencies currently involved in what analysts refer to as an 'ugly competition', gold is gaining traction.

"People have real fears about what is going to happen in Greece and Spain and the effect it is going to have on the euro, and they are saying the only thing that is safe and secure is gold," said ANZ Bank's head of metals sales Peter Hillyard.

"Whether that is foolish or not, it is current thinking."

Major economies' adoption of low interest rates to stimulate economic growth have cut the earning power of cash on deposit -- also cutting the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing gold.

Governments are unlikely to address falling currency values at present, analysts say, as a weak currency can protect exports and boost recovery. Moves to raise cash via bond issuance to steer economies away from crisis are also unsettling investors.

"Long-term investors are beginning to realise that gold is the only thing that is going to protect you from governments who decide that the way out of this problem is to borrow more," said Bullman Investment Management Managing Director Nick Bullman.

From a chart perspective, gold has been building a solid base. It has risen steadily in euro and sterling terms since its late December correction, while dollar-priced gold has been on an upward trend since a dip to 2010 lows in February.

"Clearly gold has been based as something of an insurance policy," said Sean Corrigan, chief investment strategist at Switzerland's Diapason Commodities Management.

And buyers of physical gold, who typically lend strong support to the market, are more comfortable with prices above $1,000 an ounce, dealers say, putting a solid floor in prices.

Now gold has proved it can hold its own in a rising dollar environment, any change in that trend may prove explosive.

"If dollar gold prices manage to hold up under the prior circumstances, how are they going to perform when the U.S. dollar is back under pressure again?" said Klapwijk of GFMS.

source: mineweb
Full text..

The survive with diamond

In the mining of rough diamonds, what's meant by "long term?" In the case of De Beers, the world's leader for well more than a century, it's a long time. For Gem Diamonds, the world's leading listed name, after Harry Winston, which also runs downstream businesses, it could mean just a few years.

According to Gem Diamonds's own advertisements, it is "a global diamond mining company that has pursued a long term growth strategy through targeted acquisitions and the development of its existing assets".

Even for the biggest in the game, these have been some of the worst of times for decades. De Beers recently completed a USD 1bn rights issue, funded according to its shareholder structure, 45% from Anglo American, 40% from the Oppenheimer family, and 15% from the Botswana government. The rights issue was mostly an equity-for-debt swap; over the past two years, in particular, De Beers's shareholders have stumped up USD 817m in the form of shareholder advances, presumably because De Beers was unable to secure further bank debt.

Listed diamond stocks were trashed during the second half of 2008, to an extent unknown in other global mining subsectors. It seems that tough times bring out the best stones; according to today's results for Gem Diamonds for 2009, its Letšeng mine, in Lesotho, "produced over 700 rough gem diamonds of over 10.8 carats which equates to 78% of revenue". External research cited by Gem Diamonds has found that Letšeng produces 31% of all rough gem quality diamonds in excess of 25 carats.

What makes Gem Diamonds global is that after severe rationalisations, closures and shut downs, it also continues to maintain an operation at Ellendale in Australia, well known for its fancy yellows. Prices have been spluttering nicely upwards; "despite the downturn", Gem Diamonds notes, "the average price for Ellendale's production rose in 2009 to USD 232 per carat compared to USD 184 per carat for 2008".

Gem Diamond's global vision has changed; 2009 saw "a group-wide emphasis on cost cutting and cash preservation", when "the majority of the group's other assets were placed on care and maintenance, and its assets in the DRC subsequently sold".

Gem Diamonds, which listed in London in 2006, is skippered by Clifford Elphick, who previously worked for a good number of years at E. Oppenheimer & Son, and appears to have an interesting time ahead. From listing to date, Gem Diamonds has raised USD 811m in equity from investors, most of it in 2007.

The company spent USD 119m buying 70% of the Letšeng Mine, and a terrific USD 250m buying the Ellendale operations in Australia. Yet from its listing in 2006 through to the end of 2009, Gem Diamonds has produced negative free cash flow (operating cash flow less capital expenditure) of USD 144m.

In a statement out today on the outlook, Elphick noted that diamond prices continued to improve in early 2010; "evidence suggests that demand for diamond jewellery in India and China continues to grow strongly, although not making up for the slowdown in US consumption of diamond jewellery".

He adds that production cutbacks by the major producers in 2009, "allied to anecdotal evidence which suggests that capacity in India, the largest cutting centre, has not returned to pre crash levels, has meant that stocks of rough and polished have not grown substantially by the end of 2009. At the top end of the market, amongst larger, better quality goods, there appears to be a shortage of supply".

The Lesotho mine, which has a long history, is proving to be a freak, in the best possible sense. In 2009, a 35.1 carat diamond from Letšeng sold for USD 1.8m at an average of USD 51,253 per carat. The average price for the mine's sales in 2009 was USD 1,534 per carat.

Gem Diamonds






USD m

2009

2008

2007

2006*

Total

Operating cash flow

47.5

59.1

49.6

14.2

170.4

Capital expenditure

-58.9

-137.9

-109.6

-7.9

-314.3

Other

-2.1

-21.2

-402.9

-118.5

-544.8

Net

-13.5

-100.0

-463.0

-112.2

-688.7







Free cash flow






Operating cash flow

47.5

59.1

49.6

14.2

170.4

Capital expenditure

-58.9

-137.9

-109.6

-7.9

-314.3

Free cash flow

-11.4

-78.8

-60.0

6.3

-143.9







Debt repaid/(raised)

41.5

-12.9

8.1

-60.0

-23.2







Equity raised

98.8


606.9

103.2

811.4







Cash on hand

113.8

61.4

183.5

51.9

113.8

Debt

-0.2

-37.8

-32.2

-60.3

-0.2

Net debt

113.6

23.6

151.4

-8.4

113.6







Dividends






* Six months






Selected diamond stocks




Stock

From

From

Value


price

high*

low*

USD bn

Lucara

CAD 1.06

-11.7%

165.0%

0.218

Afri-Can Marine

CAD 0.23

-15.1%

181.3%

0.037

Karelian Diamond

GBP 0.02

-46.7%

6.7%

0.002

Sunrise Diamonds

GBP 0.01

-42.2%

44.4%

0.002

Namibian Resources

GBP 0.03

-51.1%

155.6%

0.002

Olivut

CAD 0.35

-36.4%

169.2%

0.011

New Nadina

CAD 0.08

-52.9%

77.8%

0.003

Kalahari Resources

CAD 0.07

-17.6%

366.7%

0.019

Lonrho Mining

AUD 0.02

-33.3%

77.8%

0.010

Sanatana Diamonds

CAD 0.12

-54.0%

109.1%

0.007

African Consolidated

GBP 0.10

-44.4%

79.5%

0.054

Gem Diamonds

GBP 2.38

-16.6%

104.4%

0.498

Shore Gold

CAD 0.92

-45.2%

253.8%

0.203

Petra Diamonds

GBP 0.65

-26.8%

182.6%

0.347

Mountain Province

CAD 2.05

-38.1%

180.8%

0.135

Firestone Diamonds

GBP 0.39

-21.2%

169.0%

0.058

African Diamonds

GBP 0.42

-25.9%

112.8%

0.048

Rockwell Diamonds

ZAR 0.50

-45.7%

133.8%

0.023

Trans Hex

ZAR 3.41

-35.7%

241.0%

0.049

Pangea Diamondfields

GBP 0.01

-61.2%

21.6%

0.030

Namakwa Diamonds

GBP 0.34

-34.3%

123.3%

0.061

Kopane Diamonds

GBP 0.12

-45.9%

666.7%

0.044

DiamondCorp

GBP 0.10

-68.9%

0.0%

0.007

Stornoway Diamonds

CAD 0.49

-33.8%

476.5%

0.138

Vaaldiam Resources

CAD 0.04

-73.1%

75.0%

0.010

Harry Winston

CAD 10.25

-22.8%

349.6%

0.773

BRC Diamondcore

CAD 0.13

-27.8%

550.0%

0.011

Tawana

ZAR 0.07

-63.1%

121.7%

0.004

Azure Resources

CAD 0.12

-22.6%

100.0%

0.006

Spider Resources

CAD 0.14

-10.0%

440.0%

0.062

Tsodilo Resources

CAD 2.25

-10.0%

733.3%

0.043

Peregrine Diamonds

CAD 1.85

-60.2%

262.7%

0.152

Diamonds North

CAD 0.26

-35.4%

131.8%

0.020

Cluff Resources Pacific

AUD 0.00

-55.6%

33.3%

0.008

Dios Exploration

CAD 0.37

-1.3%

362.5%

0.013

Arctic Star Diamonds

CAD 0.07

-27.8%

333.3%

0.016

Grizzly Diamonds

CAD 0.27

-51.8%

1.9%

0.007

North Australian

AUD 0.05

-31.9%

444.4%

0.102

Blina Diamonds

AUD 0.01

-72.5%

10.0%

0.004

Tawana Resources

AUD 0.03

-10.7%

525.0%

0.010

Averages/Total


-36.1%

209.1%

3.245

Weighted averages


-31.2%

203.1%







Diversifieds with diamonds




Anglo American**

GBP 26.79

-9.6%

148.5%

53.445

BHP Billiton

GBP 21.84

-2.9%

72.5%

204.291

Rio Tinto

GBP 36.89

-2.5%

144.7%

131.108

Alexis Minerals

CAD 0.38

-40.6%

2.7%

0.081

Flinders Mines

AUD 0.13

-36.5%

140.4%

0.208






Market leader





De Beers

Unlisted

NA

NA

NA






Indicator stocks





Tiffany & Co.

USD 46.36

-1.4%

146.6%

5.770

LVMH

EUR 86.15

-1.0%

92.1%

57.965

Blue Nile

USD 56.11

-16.5%

143.1%

0.813

Gemfields Resources

GBP 0.05

-44.9%

104.0%

0.025

* 12-month


** Holds 45% of unlisted De Beers

Source: market data; table compiled by Barry Sergeant and mineweb

Full text..

First Quantum raise standards

First Quantum, the African copper-gold miner, now expanding into nickel beyond the continent, reported a sharp turnaround in its fortunes for 2009, bar the debacle at Kolwezi tailings in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which appears to have turned into a farce of international proportions.

Jungle tragedy and comedy aside, First Quantum produced 374,000 tonnes of copper in 2009, and is anticipating 385,000 tonnes this year. Gold production for 2009 was 193,000 ounces, with 240,000 ounces anticipated this year.

First Quantum's group copper production has grown from 29,500 tonnes in 2003, all from Bwana (Zambia) and Lonshi (just across the border in the DRC). Group gold production started out at a modest 14,300 ounces in 2005. The group owns and operates 80% of the Kansanshi copper-gold mine in Zambia ("a foundation asset"), 95% of Frontier in the DRC, and 80% of the Guelb Moghrein gold-copper mine in Mauritania.

First Quantum is expanding in Africa, and also moving offshore. On 23 November 2009, First Quantum announced it would acquire London-listed Kiwara for USD 260m, mainly for its controlling interest in mineral prospecting licence 267, covering 2,850 km² on the periphery of the Kabombo Dome in Zambia.

On 30 November, First Quantum announced the go ahead for its Kevitsa, Finland project, with a capital cost of USD 400m and first production anticipated for 2012. The mine will produce a cocktail of concentrates, with metals that include copper and gold, led by nickel.

On 8 December First Quantum announced the USD 340m acquisition of Ravensthorpe, Australia from BHP Billiton. Ravensthorpe, approved in March 2004, was built at a cost of USD 2.1bn but operations were suspended in January 2009, following the precipitous decline in nickel prices, long among the most volatile of any commodity. From highs close to USD 25.00/lb in 2007, nickel fell to nearly USD 4.00/lb, and has since recovered to close on USD 10.00/lb.

First Quantum has commenced work at Ravensthorpe, modifying the crushing, conveying, stockpile and reclaim areas, and will continue work for about the next 12 months, followed by about six months of commissioning and ramp-up.

First Quantum expects Ravensthorpe's average annual production of nickel metal at about 39,000 tonnes for the first five years, after recommencement of operations, and an average annual production of 28,000 tonnes of nickel metal over the expected life of mine of 32 years. The total modification cost is estimated at about USD 150m.

First Quantum is distinguished as one of just a few miners that have kicked off in Africa and expanded outside the continent. The group started mining at Lonshi, just over the DRC border, in August 2001; a 36km laterite road was built to haul ore from Lonshi to Bwana Mkubwa, near Ndola. The Lonshi orebody was mined out during 2008, by which time First Quantum had made it into the major league.

As for the drama in the DRC, the carrying value of the Kolwezi tailings development project, or KMT, is USD 787m, being an initial acquisition cost of USD 388m, and capital expenditures, so far, of USD 399m. In a September 2009 announcement, First Quantum confirmed suspension of work at the 75%-complete Kolwezi tailings project, after it was shuttered by government agents.

On February 1 2010 First Quantum announced commencement of international arbitration by First Quantum and its partners in KMT, under the facilities of the International Chamber of Commerce, International Court of Arbitration, in Paris.

First Quantum






USD m

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Operating cash flow

562.6

765.4

540.0

512.0

201.8

Capital expenditure

-361.8

-460.3

-319.6

-302.1

-186.7

Other (net)

-4.8

-304.7

-283.2

-61.6

21.9

Net

196.0

0.4

-62.8

148.3

37.0







Free cash flow






Operating cash flow

562.6

765.4

540.0

512.0

201.8

Capital expenditure

-361.8

-460.3

-319.6

-302.1

-186.7

Free cash flow

200.8

305.1

220.4

209.9

15.1













Debt (raised) repaid

-279.7

-18.2

-69.3

-55.5

-28.2







Equity raised

279.1

5.0

11.5

3.5

2.2







Cash on hand

919.2

176.2

200.0

249.5

82.9

Debt

-630.0

-385.7

-360.8

-294.9

-236.1

Net debt

289.2

-209.5

-160.8

-45.4

-153.2







Dividends

-5.8

-53.0

-51.7

-20.2

-4.0

Selected copper stocks




Stock

From

From

Value


price

high*

low*

USD bn

Freeport-McMoRan

USD 82.18

-9.2%

139.2%

35.384

Southern Copper

USD 31.51

-14.8%

110.1%

26.784

Antofagasta

GBP 10.20

-3.2%

126.3%

15.241

KGHM Polska Miedź

PLN 101.80

-8.6%

139.5%

7.201

Jiangxi Copper

CNY 34.04

-33.4%

111.3%

8.155

Sterlite

USD 18.14

-9.8%

234.7%

15.243

Yunnan Copper

CNY 24.86

-35.7%

87.9%

4.577

Tongling

CNY 18.01

-31.3%

89.6%

3.415

First Quantum

CAD 90.30

-10.0%

177.8%

7.156

Equinox

CAD 3.85

-17.9%

146.8%

2.682

Philex

PHP 13.25

-33.8%

212.5%

1.423

Nautilus Minerals

CAD 2.14

-22.5%

111.9%

0.328

Katanga Mining

CAD 0.75

-39.2%

236.8%

1.409

Quadra

CAD 17.49

-5.8%

315.4%

1.714

Pan Australian

AUD 0.52

-20.0%

197.1%

1.394

Metorex

ZAR 4.20

-24.3%

228.1%

0.428

Palamin

ZAR 109.90

-4.4%

138.9%

0.720

Mercator

CAD 2.81

-18.8%

510.9%

0.539

Anvil

CAD 4.04

-4.5%

386.7%

0.598

Northern Dynasty

CAD 9.50

-7.6%

59.1%

0.873

Taseko

CAD 5.19

-11.1%

359.3%

0.940

Aditya Birla

AUD 0.93

-43.6%

708.7%

0.266

Corriente

CAD 8.51

-0.6%

71.9%

0.631

Fronteer

CAD 5.13

-10.8%

108.5%

0.605

CuDeco

AUD 4.68

-29.0%

153.0%

0.587

Chariot

CAD 0.65

-1.5%

364.3%

0.234

Baja Mining

CAD 0.77

-20.6%

234.8%

0.109

Activex

AUD 0.08

-35.8%

67.4%

0.006

Terrane

CAD 1.11

-43.9%

516.7%

0.140

Hillgrove Resources

AUD 0.37

-28.8%

236.4%

0.163

Havilah Resources

AUD 0.42

-40.8%

35.5%

0.031

Globestar Mining

CAD 1.08

-10.0%

120.4%

0.112

Citadel Resource

AUD 0.36

-23.7%

222.7%

0.475

Amerigo

CAD 0.70

-17.6%

145.6%

0.102

New Gold

CAD 4.62

-11.0%

148.4%

1.769

Tiger Resources

AUD 0.25

-21.9%

177.8%

0.093

Candente

CAD 0.46

-20.2%

236.0%

0.036

African Copper

GBP 0.06

-61.3%

757.1%

0.075

Marengo Mining

AUD 0.11

-54.2%

120.0%

0.050

Inca Pacific

CAD 0.20

-54.0%

25.0%

0.011

Exco Resources

AUD 0.24

-31.4%

192.7%

0.111

Coro

CAD 0.53

-27.4%

360.9%

0.047

Discovery Metals

AUD 0.77

-9.5%

446.4%

0.162

Africo

CAD 0.98

-34.2%

84.9%

0.069

Prairie Downs

AUD 0.13

-50.0%

120.3%

0.009

Duluth Metals

CAD 2.31

-42.1%

1148.6%

0.219

Polymet Mining

CAD 2.51

-35.5%

248.6%

0.368

African Eagle

GBP 0.04

-71.0%

61.1%

0.016

El Nino Ventures

CAD 0.08

-54.3%

45.5%

0.005

Seabridge

CAD 22.73

-36.0%

8.7%

0.843

Augusta Resources

USD 2.69

-25.5%

249.4%

0.238

Rambler Metals

GBP 0.35

-8.6%

239.0%

0.031

Norsemont Mining

CAD 2.30

-12.5%

94.9%

0.181

Apoquindo Minerals

CAD 0.82

-25.5%

272.7%

0.041

Capstone Mining

CAD 3.07

-7.0%

119.3%

0.596

Imperial Metals

CAD 16.55

-2.2%

652.3%

0.560

Pacific Booker

CAD 6.75

-20.1%

35.0%

0.076

Nevada Copper

CAD 3.28

-8.1%

1582.1%

0.146

Avanco Resources

AUD 0.03

-43.2%

316.7%

0.012

Finders Resources

AUD 0.20

-20.4%

81.4%

0.034

Polar Star Mining

CAD 1.20

-24.5%

471.4%

0.083

Hana Mining

CAD 1.90

-12.8%

955.6%

0.111

Benguet

PHP 13.50

-26.0%

121.3%

0.028

Continental Minerals

CAD 2.19

-8.0%

461.5%

0.330

Bezant Resources

GBP 0.34

-16.5%

426.9%

0.024

Kobex

CAD 0.93

-20.5%

49.0%

0.048

Cornerstone Capital

CAD 0.13

-35.9%

212.5%

0.010

Thundermin

CAD 0.15

-39.6%

52.6%

0.010

Western Copper

CAD 1.74

-22.7%

443.8%

0.136

Averages/total


-16.2%

170.7%

146.244

Weighted averages


-15.1%

140.3%







Diversifieds with copper





Stock

From

From

Value


price

high*

low*

USD bn

BHP Billiton

GBP 21.84

-2.9%

72.5%

204.291

Vale

USD 30.42

-4.8%

135.6%

160.883

Rio Tinto

GBP 36.89

-2.5%

144.7%

131.108

Anglo American

GBP 26.79

-9.6%

148.5%

53.445

Xstrata

GBP 11.58

-11.1%

230.2%

51.561

Norilsk

USD 16.80

-2.4%

211.1%

32.025

Teck

USD 40.68

-2.9%

962.1%

23.585

Vedanta

GBP 27.17

-8.4%

387.8%

11.159

NFC

CNY 13.79

-38.5%

58.3%

1.291

Lundin

CAD 5.13

-2.5%

375.0%

2.928

Kazakhmys

GBP 14.90

-4.7%

403.4%

12.087

Ivanhoe

CAD 16.32

-11.7%

204.5%

6.845

Inmet

CAD 59.19

-24.1%

101.9%

3.270

Northgate

CAD 3.17

-14.3%

124.8%

0.907

Oz Minerals

AUD 1.14

-14.3%

152.2%

3.239

Hindalco

INR 169.55

-5.7%

310.0%

7.116

Mwana Africa

GBP 0.10

-42.3%

230.6%

0.062

EMED Mining

GBP 0.12

-27.0%

217.2%

0.059

Boliden

CAD 13.80

-11.7%

224.7%

3.717

Xinjiang Xinxin

CNY 4.18

-25.0%

120.0%

0.409

Ivanhoe Australia

AUD 3.36

-20.8%

646.7%

0.985

Minera Andes

CAD 0.96

-4.0%

68.4%

0.249

CGA Mining

AUD 2.10

-18.9%

54.4%

0.636

Asia Now

CAD 0.30

-22.4%

268.8%

0.019

Kefi Minerals

GBP 0.02

-42.9%

20.0%

0.006

Iberian Minerals

CAD 0.52

-16.1%

55.2%

0.173

Sandfire Resources

AUD 3.64

-17.1%

6286.0%

0.404

Orocobre

AUD 2.25

-8.2%

845.4%

0.166

Orvana Minerals

CAD 1.12

-8.2%

86.7%

0.127

Straits Resources

AUD 1.29

-40.2%

54.9%

0.301

Highlands Pacific

AUD 0.26

-37.0%

372.2%

0.154

Kagara

AUD 0.83

-37.1%

233.3%

0.512

Averages/total


-16.9%

431.5%

713.719

Weighted averages


-5.1%

133.2%


* 12-month


Source: market data; table compiled by Barry Sergeant and mineweb


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